A look at Georgia football's chances to go 12-0 during the 2024 regular season.
Kipp Adams
Looking at ESPN's 2024 FPI, eight remaining opponents on the Dawgs' schedule are in the top 40, with four inside the top 10.ESPN defines its FPI asa "measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily."
Georgia football has the second-best projected win total and its10.2 percent chance of winning all of its games is fourth, behindNotre Dame (20.2%), Penn State (12.3%), and Ohio State (10.8%). Last year Georgia was given a 22.4% chance of winning all of its games in the regular season and proceeded to go 12-0. In 2022, it was given a 22.7% chance and was also able to go 12-0. Georgia is given the best chance at winning the SEC at31.4 percent, followed by Texas at 25.8 percent. Georgia is given an 87.4 percent chance of making the playoff, the best in the country. It is given a 36.8 percent chance of making the national championship, and a 25 percent chance of winning it all, both good for best chances in college football.
Below is a look at Georgia's remaining 2024 opponents as they are on the schedule along with FPI's updated projected chances of the Dawgs' winning.
According to ESPN, FPI preseason rankings are based on"past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production, and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating. We then use those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times, resulting in our projections."
Looking at each game, here is how ESPN sees the season shaking out, according to ESPN's win probability numbers.
Opponent write-ups contributed by Jordan D. Hill from his ranking of Georgia's toughest games last month.
Tennessee Tech (0-1)
Win probability:99.0%
FPI rank:N/A
AP rank: N/A
Coaches Poll: N/A
Game Date:Sept. 7
Location:Athens
Series History:Georgia is 2-0 all-time against Tennessee Tech, winning the last matchup 38-0 in 2009.
This should be no surprise to have the FCS opponent on Georgia's schedule come in with such a high win probability.
The Golden Eagles are preparing for a new era of football with formerOld Dominionhead coachBobby Wildertaking the reins following a 4-7 showing last season.Tennessee Techhas some interesting transfers on their roster and will be hoping to take a step forward in the Big South-Ohio Valley Conference, but they'll be the Bulldogs' punching bag come Week 2.
Kentucky (1-0)
Win probability: 89.0% (Up from88.0%)
FPI rank:No. 29 (up from No. 34)
AP rank:Not ranked
Coaches Poll:Not ranked
Game Date:Sept. 14
Location:Lexington, Ky.
Series History:Georgia leads 63-12-2, having reeled off 14 straight wins over Kentucky.
This feels like an important season for theKentucky Wildcats. Not only are they coming off a disappointing 7-6 season, butMark Stoopsnearly left for Texas A&M before the Aggies decided to go in a different direction.
There are a number of reasons why you shouldn't write off this matchup in Lexington. It will be Georgia's first SEC game of the season and will also be the Bulldogs' first true road game of the fall. It will also be a game circled by formerGeorgiaplayersBrock VandagriffandJamon Dumas-Johnson, who look like sure bets to be starters for the Wildcats this fall.
I went back and forth between Kentucky andAuburnfor this spot, but I chose the Wildcats because of when the game falls in the season and because of what both Vandagriff and Dumas-Johnson are capable of doing against their old team. I still don't see Kentucky as being capable of winning this one, but we've seen the Wildcats make things difficult for the Dawgs even in Georgia victories.
Alabama (1-0)
Win probability: 52.6% (Down from59.1%)
FPI rank:No. 2
AP rank:No. 5
Coaches Poll:No. 5
Game Date:Sept. 28
Location:Tuscaloosa, Ala.
Series History:Georgia is 26-43-4 all-time against Alabama, having lost the matchup against the Crimson Tide 27-24 in the 2023 SEC Championship
Everyone circled this game on the calendar last year when the SEC first announced the 2024 matchups. The game lost a bit of interest whenNick Sabanretired, but there's still plenty of intrigue about what's in store for this team underKalen DeBoer.
The Crimson Tide saw some significant departures this offseason but did bring back starting quarterbackJalen Milroe. Milroe will have a whole new crew around him on offense this season, but DeBoer has never had problems with scoring points and shouldn't in Tuscaloosa.
I think DeBoer was a good hire byAlabama, but I think Year 1 is going to see the kind of trial and error that all head coaches go through with a new team. This will be DeBoer's first SEC game, and I think theGeorgiawin that takes place in Bryant-Denny Stadium is not going to sit well with a whole lot of their fans. Hey, that's the territory that comes with coaching the Crimson Tide.
Auburn (1-0)
Win probability:89.5% (Up from 88.4%)
FPI rank:No. 16 (Up from No. 19)
AP rank:Not ranked
Coaches Poll:Not ranked
Game Date:Oct. 5
Location: Athens, Ga.
Series History:Georgia leads 63-56-8 in the series, having won the last seven games and 16 out of the last 19 over the Tigers.
We're getting into the range of teams that could surprise in 2024, though I'm not expecting them to really threaten the Bulldogs.
Auburnis coming off a disappointing Year 1 underHugh Freezeduring which the passing offense was atrocious and the Tigers let a few golden opportunities slip away. The Tigers gambled this offseason by sticking with starting quarterbackPayton Thorneand upgrading the offensive weapons around him. Thorne's targets for 2024 include returning starterRivaldo Fairweather,Penn StatetransferKeAndre Lambert-Smith, and highly touted freshmenCam Coleman,Perry Thompson, andMalcolm Simmons.
Auburn hadGeorgiaon the ropes in Jordan-Hare Stadium last September, but the Tigers will be tasked with beating the Bulldogs in Athens for the first time since 2005. I think the Auburn offense will be better in Year 2 under Freeze, but I don't think it's capable of helping hand Georgia a rare home defeat.
Mississippi State (1-0)
Win probability:94.1% (Up from93.9%)
FPI rank:No. 36 (Up from No. 49)
AP rank:Not ranked
Coaches Poll:Not ranked
Game Date:Oct. 12
Location: Athens
Series History:Georgia leads the all-time series 20-6,having won the last four games, with the last being a 45-19 road win in 2022.
TheMississippi Stateprogram found itself in a terrible situation in December 2022 when head coachMike Leachpassed away. Defensive coordinatorZach Arnetttook over as head coach, but his one season at the helm was a dud and led to his dismissal.
FormerOklahomaoffensive coordinatorJeff Lebbywas tapped as Arnett's replacement, and he's set with the challenge of reigniting the Mississippi State offense. A disciple ofArt Briles, Lebby's offenses have piled up points over the years. He'll look to get the Bulldogs working in that direction in the years to come.
Lebby has been a productive play-caller in the past, but it feels like the Bulldogs have a long way to go before they can really compete in the 16-team SEC. I think Lebby's first year at Mississippi State is a struggle, and their trip to Athens in Week 7 is going to demonstrate how much work he and his new program face ahead.
Texas (1-0)
Win probability:52.3% (Down from 52.4%)
FPI rank:No. 3
AP rank:No. 4
Coaches Poll:No. 4
Game Date:Oct. 19
Location:Austin, Texas
Series History: Georgia is 1-4 all-time against Texas, with the Longhorns winning the last matchup 28-21 in the 2019 Sugar Bowl.
Texasis riding high after making the College Football Playoff last season, and the Longhorns have plenty to be excited about entering 2024. Not only is Texas prepared for a new era as SEC members, but the Longhorns brought back quarterbackQuinn Ewers, addedAlabamatransfersIsaiah BondandAmari Niblack, and have two of their top three tacklers returning from last season.
Playing this game at Texas is going to make things challenging for Georgia, but I do think it's notable that the Bulldogs will be coming off hostingMississippi Statewhile the Longhorns are fresh off the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma. I'm ultimately going to pick Georgia to win this game because I have big questions about how Texas fills the void of defensive linemenByron MurphyandT'Vondre Sweat, but if the Bulldogs drop a game in the regular season, I think it happens in Austin.
Florida (0-1)
Win probability:94.3% (Up from85.3%)
FPI rank:No. 43 (Down from No. 20)
AP rank:Not ranked
Coaches Poll:Not ranked
Game Date:Nov. 2
Location: Jacksonville, Fla.
Series History:Georgia leads 56-44-2 over the Gators.
There have been a lot of questions in recent months about the future of theBilly Napierera in Gainesville. The Gators lost several playmakers to the transfer portal this offseason, and it feels like they're going to need several newcomers to step up in order to have a chance at contending.
Floridais not expected to be a contender in 2024, especially when you take the Gators' schedule into account. Florida has a brutal slate in 2024 that includes non-conference games againstMiami,UCF, andFlorida Statealong with a four-game close to conference play that includes vs.Georgia, atTexas, atLSU, and vs.Ole Miss.
This series has not been kind to Napier, as Georgia has won each of the two meetings with an average margin of victory of 22.5 points. We've seen strange things happen in Jacksonville before, but there's little reason to think that the Gators are capable of keeping up with the Bulldogs this time around.
Ole Miss (1-0)
Win probability:73.4% (Down from 78.8%)
FPI rank:No. 8 (Up from No. 16)
AP rank:No. 6
Coaches Poll:No. 6
Game Date:Nov. 9
Location:Oxford, Miss.
Series History:Georgia leads the all-time series 33-12-1, including a 52-17 win in Athens last season to reset the winning streak to one.
If you've been paying attention to the games that have already been listed, you'll realize the final three games on this list are all road games. That should be no surprise given the caliber of these opponents and given how hard it is to consistently go on the road and come out with another W.
It feels likeOle Misshas been on the verge of being a playoff contender for a couple years now, and the expansion of the playoff to 12 teams will certainly helpLane Kiffinand the Rebels. Ole Miss once again reloaded with a strong high school class and a deep portal class, and the return of starting quarterbackJaxson Dartputs the Rebels in position to pile up points once again.
Ole Miss didn't stand a chance againstGeorgiain Athens last season, but the Rebels are hoping the return trip to Oxford isn't as kind to the Bulldogs. While I like Ole Miss as a potential playoff team, I'll have to see it to believe it when it comes to the Rebels' defense slowing down the Dawgs.
Tennessee (1-0)
Win probability:78.4% (Down from 79.4%)
FPI rank:No. 7 (Up from No. 9)
AP rank:No. 15
Coaches Poll:No. 15
Game Date:Nov. 16
Location:Athens, Ga.
Series History:Georgia has won seven in a row and 12 of the last 14 games against Tennessee, taking a 28-23-2 lead in the all-time series last year.
Tennesseedidn't replicate its 2022 success last fall, but the Volunteers still had a respectable 9-4 record inJosh Heupel's third season. The Vols are hoping to assert themselves as contenders in the first year of the 16-team SEC, and it feels like their chances hinge on former five-star quarterback Nico Imaleava.
Imaleava waited in the wings behind veteran Joe Milton last fall but seems set to be a starter as a redshirt freshman. He'll be tasked with reigniting a Tennessee offense that averaged just under 15 fewer points per game in 2023 compared to 2022, but he should have help on the other side with playmakers like EDGEJames Pearce Jr.and defensive tackleOmari Thomas.
Imaleava arrived in Knoxville with a lot of hype, and everyone around the SEC will be watching to see if he sinks or swims in his first full season as a starter. I think the Vols have some interesting pieces to work with this season, but they don't strike me as one of the Bulldogs' biggest threats in 2024.
UMass (0-1)
Win probability:99.0% (unchanged)
FPI rank:No. 130 (Down from No. 125)
AP rank:Not ranked
Coaches Poll:Not ranked
Game Date:Nov. 23
Location: Athens
Series History:Georgia leads the all-time series1-0, with a 66-27 win in 2018.
UMassisn't at the FCS level anymore, but the Minutemen haven't exactly wow as an FBS program. The Minutemen have consistently been one of college football's worst teams, and the situation hasn't improved much with formerMichigandefensive coordinatorDon Browncalling the shots.
The Minutemen did bump their win total up two games last season and managed to beat two solid squads inNew Mexico Stateand Army. That said, it's going to be a snoozer of a contest in Sanford Stadium asGeorgiatries to handle its business six days before some Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate.
Georgia Tech (2-0)
Win probability: 92.6%
FPI rank:No. 34 (Up from No. 54)
AP rank:Not ranked
Coaches Poll:Not ranked
Game Date:Oct. 12
Location: Athens
Series History:Georgia leads the all-time series 71-41-5, having won the last six games,the most recent being a 31-23 victory in Atlanta last season.
FormerGeorgia Techoffensive linemanBrent Keyhas accepted the mission of rebuilding his alma mater. The results early on have been positive, but the Yellow Jackets are hoping to take another step forward in 2024.
Georgia Tech has been fairly competitive withGeorgiathe past two meetings with Key leading the way, including last year's game when the Yellow Jackets tried to make things interesting late in a 31-23 victory for a shorthanded Bulldogs squad. The Yellow Jackets look set to be a bowl team again in 2024, and they'll hope that they can catch the Bulldogs off guard in the first Black Friday edition of this game.
Although Georgia Tech's last win in this series was in Athens back in 2016, it feels like the Yellow Jackets just have way too much going against them entering this year's matchup in Sanford. While I like what Key and company have done so far on the flats, I don't see this being a game that Georgia winds up sweating to end the regular season.
